توقع: GPT-5.6 released on 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI previewed the GPT-5.6 family on 26 June 2026, launching Sol, Terra and Luna to roughly 20 government-approved partners via the API and Codex, but has not announced a general-availability date for the wider public[1][6]. The model remains in limited preview, excluded from ChatGPT during this phase, with OpenAI stating it plans broad access “in the coming weeks” without committing to a specific ET release date[3][6].

Historical release patterns show OpenAI often delays general access by several weeks after a preview, as seen with GPT-5.5, which shipped three weeks before GPT-5.6 surfaced in Codex logs but took time to reach public ChatGPT[2]. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects this uncertainty, mirroring past markets where early leaks or beta access did not immediately trigger settlement, especially when no firm date was confirmed[2].

Traders should monitor OpenAI’s Deployment Safety Hub for a system card update and Codex backend logs for version bumps, which typically precede public rollout[2][3]. A Kalshi market resolving on a public release before 10 July 2026 suggests the window is tight, yet OpenAI’s silence on timing keeps the line flat[5]. Watch for any announcement of ChatGPT integration or API expansion beyond trusted partners, as these are the clearest signals of imminent general availability[6][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: GPT-5.6 released on 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.