توقع: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, 9 October 2026, following a selection process that began with 287 nominated candidates, comprising 208 individuals and 79 organisations[1][8]. The Norwegian Nobel Committee has narrowed this field through adviser reviews and deliberations, with the final decision made by majority vote in late September[4][5]. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 6% for a specific outcome, a figure that must be weighed against the committee’s historical tendency to award contemporary, often controversial political actors rather than established institutions[10].

Historically, the prize has frequently recognised figures involved in active conflict resolution or human rights advocacy, such as the recent award to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, which sparked White House commentary on overlooked nominees[2]. With Donald Trump listed as a frontrunner at 5/1 odds by BetOnline.ag, alongside Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms and Médecins Sans Frontières at 8/1, the market reflects a high-stakes contest between individual political leaders and humanitarian organisations[2]. Nina Græger’s shortlist further highlights candidates like Mykola Kuleba with Save the Children and the International Court of Justice, suggesting a potential split between diplomatic and grassroots peace efforts[3].

Traders should monitor the committee’s final deliberations between mid-August and late September, as consensus is common but a simple majority suffices[5]. The announcement date is fixed for the first full week of October, closing the settlement window before 10 October 2026[1][5]. Recent speculation around Trump’s potential inclusion, coupled with the committee’s registration of 287 valid nominations, indicates that lobbying and media coverage will intensify before the decision[2]. No further nominations are accepted after the January 31 deadline, meaning the field is now static and focused solely on internal committee evaluation[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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