Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 64,000-66,000 | 90% |
| 66,000-68,000 | 5% |
| 62,000-64,000 | 4% |
| 68,000-70,000 | 1% |
| <54,000 | 0% |
| 54,000-56,000 | 0% |
| 56,000-58,000 | 0% |
| 58,000-60,000 | 0% |
| 60,000-62,000 | 0% |
| 70,000-72,000 | 0% |
| >72,000 | 0% |
Market context
Bitcoin is trading in a narrow band for now, with spot prices in early August clustering around the low-to-mid $60,000s while some live feeds still show heavier intraday swings around that area. Coinbase shows Bitcoin at about $91,151, but other market pages and historical feeds in the same search set place BTC closer to $62,000-$64,000, which underlines how much the exact reference point and timestamp matter for a settlement that keys off a specific Binance 1-minute candle close.[3][4][5][7][9][13]
That matters because August has been a weak month historically for Bitcoin, and several current forecast pieces frame $60,000-$65,500 as the most defensible near-term range unless a fresh catalyst forces a break.[15][16] One market preview also shows live prediction pricing concentrated around $62,500 to $64,000, with the higher brackets still carrying less weight, which is consistent with a market that is not yet pricing a decisive move through nearby resistance.[1][10]
For traders, the main watchpoints are the next macro prints and any shift in ETF flow tone, because recent commentary ties BTC’s ability to hold above $64,000 to whether incoming data keeps September rate-cut expectations alive.[6][15] In parallel, the Binance 12:00 ET 1-minute close will be unusually sensitive to lunchtime volatility, so any sharp move into that window, rather than the day’s broader range, is what will ultimately decide settlement.[1]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Bitcoin price on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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