توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are returning to the Strait of Hormuz after a US-Iran peace deal finalized on 17 June guarantees immediate commercial navigation, with 25 vessels crossing on Thursday—the highest volume since April[3]. Despite this surge, the current crowd-implied probability of traffic reaching a 7-day average of 60 ships by end-June remains at 0% because the strait was effectively closed for months prior, with daily transit averaging only six ships between March and May compared to 100 in February[2]. Historical precedents show that even brief reopenings, such as the two-week ceasefire in April, failed to sustain volume due to lingering confusion and unresolved security risks, meaning a single day of high traffic does not guarantee the sustained average required for a "Yes" resolution[2].

Traders must monitor the US naval blockade lift scheduled for 19 July and Iran’s commitment to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same timeframe, as these are critical dependencies for sustained throughput[3]. Although the agreement mandates toll-free passage for 60 days, it does not clarify long-term Iranian authority over the strait, creating uncertainty that could dampen vessel confidence[3]. Recent reports confirm that 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait on 18 June, marking a significant rebound, yet war risk insurance premiums remain over 16 times normal rates, indicating that safety concerns persist despite the diplomatic breakthrough[4]. The key catalyst is whether Iran can maintain this momentum without imposing tolls or restrictions before the 30 June settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.