توقع: Fed Decision in July?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to convene on 28–29 July 2026 to determine whether to adjust the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, currently anchored at 3.75%. With the crowd-implied probability of a rate hike at 0%, markets are betting the Fed will hold steady despite inflation reaching a three-year peak, a stance that aligns with recent data showing a soft jobs report easing immediate hiking pressures[1][4].

Historically, the Fed has maintained rates for extended periods when balancing dual mandates, particularly following the December 2025 cut that established the current 3.50%–3.75% range[2][5]. Comparable cases from the dot plot suggest officials have removed forecasts for cuts this year, yet the median expectation for a year-end rate of 3.8% implies only one potential hike, likely deferred to September rather than July[1][2]. This pattern mirrors the June 2026 decision where Chair Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting held rates steady while hinting at future increases, reinforcing the likelihood of a July hold[2].

Traders should monitor the upcoming soft jobs report and any shifts in inflation data tied to the Iran war, as these directly influence the Fed’s timing for a rate adjustment[1][4]. The CME Fed funds futures contracts now show a 30% probability for a July hike, down from 40% earlier, while an 80% expectation persists for a September increase[1]. Additionally, Chair Warsh’s refusal to hint at a July decision during his recent policy panel underscores the committee’s cautious approach[10]. The next critical catalyst is the September 15–16 meeting, where a hike is widely anticipated if inflation remains unsustainable[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Fed Decision in July?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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