توقع: China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

China’s second-quarter 2026 GDP growth has already been officially reported at 4.3% year-on-year, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 15 July 2026, just hours before this market’s settlement window closes[1][2]. This figure marks the slowest quarterly expansion since late 2022 and falls below the 4.5% forecast that had anchored consensus expectations[2][3]. The market’s 0% YES probability for any growth outcome above the current print reflects the certainty that the official number is fixed and cannot be revised upward before settlement.

Historically, China’s GDP prints have rarely deviated significantly from preliminary releases, with subsequent adjustments typically marginal and downward in recent cycles. The 4.3% result aligns with the World Bank’s 2026 projection of 4.4% growth, suggesting the economy is tracking its rebalancing path despite weak domestic demand and external shocks from the Iran conflict[2][6]. Given that the settlement rule uses the “Preliminary Accounting Results” release, and that this data is already public, no further catalysts can alter the outcome.

Traders should note that the market resolves based on the July 16 release, which in this case is the same data already published on 15 July[1]. With the official figure confirmed and no revision mechanism active before settlement, the 0% YES probability is not a speculative stance but a factual reflection of the locked-in 4.3% print[2]. Any alternative brackets in the market (e.g., “4.3–4.6%”) already capture this outcome at 100% probability, confirming the event’s resolution is effectively predetermined[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.