Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: BTF (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs Rune Eaters (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 98% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-3.5) vs Rune Eaters (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-9.5) vs Rune Eaters (+9.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rune Eaters (-6.5) vs Butterfly (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rune Eaters (-3.5) vs Butterfly (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs Rune Eaters (+6.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Butterfly (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Butterfly (-6.5) vs Rune Eaters (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Butterfly’s round-of-16 match with Rune Eaters is a best-of-three in the CCT Europe Series #6 playoffs, so the 100% yes price is really just saying the fixture is expected to go ahead and produce a winner rather than be washed into a void. The bracket is single-elimination, which makes this a straight knockout tie with no safety net: one team advances, the other exits, and that structure tends to keep resolution risk low once a map actually starts.[2][6]
Recent comparable results lean more towards a live, decisive match than a cancellation scenario. Rune Eaters have already played several CCT Europe series matches this summer, including a 2–1 win over UNiTY on 30 July, and public match pages list Butterfly against Rune Eaters for the playoff slot rather than as a provisional pairing.[5][11][3] That matters because markets in this lane usually only slip away from 100% when a fixture is removed from the schedule, delayed past the settlement window, or abandoned after a start; nothing in the current tournament listings points to that kind of disruption.[2][3]
The main catalysts to watch are late schedule changes, roster confirmation, or bracket knock-on effects from earlier playoff games. If either side fields a stand-in, is forced to forfeit, or the organiser moves the BO3 beyond the allowed delay period, settlement can shift away from a normal match result; otherwise the market should resolve on the in-game winner.[2][3] Current listings still show the meeting as a standard playoff BO3, and the available team pages do not indicate an injury or suspension angle that would normally unsettle the line.[1][2][3]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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