Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BIG Academy (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BIG Academy (-6.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BIG Academy (-6.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 91% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 91% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BIG Academy (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BIG Academy (-3.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BIG Academy (-6.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BIG.A (-1.5) vs Inner Circle Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Inner Circle Academy faces BIG Academy in a Best-of-3 Play-In Group B clash at the NODWIN Clutch Series #10, scheduled for 08:00 UTC on 13 July 2026. This is the first time these two academies have met, with BIG Academy holding a higher global standing at #77 in the Strafe CS2 World Rankings compared to Inner Circle Academy’s #98 position [1]. Both squads have won three of their last five matches, yet community voting heavily favours BIG Academy with 84.2% of predictions, reflecting a clear disparity in perceived form despite identical recent win rates [1].
Historical precedents in academy-tier Counter-Strike often see higher-ranked teams dominate debut matchups against lower-ranked opponents, particularly when the gap exceeds 20 ranking points, as seen here. The 0% crowd-implied probability for Inner Circle Academy aligns with this pattern, where underdogs in C-Tier qualifiers without prior head-to-head data rarely overturn significant ranking deficits unless line-up changes occur mid-tournament.
Traders should monitor official roster announcements for both teams before the match begins, as academy squads frequently rotate players between qualifiers. Any sudden substitution or suspension could shift the probability line, though no such news has emerged as of today. The match is confirmed to proceed at 08:00 UTC with no delays reported, and settlement hinges strictly on the BO3 result, with cancellation or tie conditions triggering a 50-50 resolution [1][5].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BIG Academy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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