Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: JustP (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Just Players (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Just Players defeated Walczaki 2–0 in the European Pro League Series 8 Quarterfinal 1 on 20 July, securing wins on Nuke (13–11) and Mirage (13–10) [8]. The match has already concluded, meaning the 100% YES probability for Just Players reflects a settled outcome rather than a live forecast.
In prediction markets, a 100% implied probability typically signals a completed event with an unambiguous result, as seen when earlier rounds in this tournament saw Walczaki eliminate SPARTA 2–1 while Just Players advanced via a 2–1 decider against WW Team [6][7]. Historical cases in CS2 playoffs show that once a BO3 finishes, markets resolve immediately to the winner, with no 50–50 settlement unless the match is cancelled or delayed beyond seven days—conditions not met here [market description].
Traders should monitor official bracket updates confirming Just Players’ progression to the semifinals and verify no post-match disqualifications occur, though no roster changes or patch shifts have altered the landscape recently [6]. The key dependency is the tournament’s official result page confirming the 2–0 scoreline, which aligns with live score data from multiple trackers [2][8]. With the settlement window ending 2026-07-20 and the match already played, no further catalysts remain to shift the line.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: Just Players vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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