Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-3.5) vs Passion Academy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-9.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-3.5) vs Passion Academy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PSN.A (-1.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-1.5) vs Passion Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Passion Academy’s best-of-three against SINQU Rehti in European Pro League Group B is a low-signal match on paper, but the recent form profile still matters: Passion Academy have lost five in a row and are reported to have a 0% win rate over the past month, while SINQU Rehti arrive with only one win in their last five and a slightly steadier recent record.[2][6][9][12] The market’s 0% YES price for Passion Academy is extreme, but it is directionally consistent with the wider numbers: multiple data feeds place Passion Academy lower in rankings than SINQU Rehti and note a weak short-term results run for the Passion lineup.[5][6][12]
There is no recent head-to-head to anchor a projection, so traders are left reading form, map pool and roster continuity rather than matchup history.[2][7] The current listed line-ups are unchanged in the available previews, which reduces the chance of a late substitution-driven swing, but the key catalyst is simply whether the scheduled start holds and whether the series is actually completed before the settlement window closes.[2][4][12] The match is listed for 08:00 UTC on 8 August, with some sites showing 08:10 UTC or 11:00 UTC local listing times, so scheduling drift is a real operational risk in online group-stage play.[1][4][6]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs SINQU Rehti (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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