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توقع: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Game 1 Winner 100% Both Teams Beat Roshan 100% First Blood in Game 1? 100% First Blood in Game 2? 100% Volume: $318K Liquidity: $600K Closes: 8 Jul 2026
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توقع: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner100%
Both Teams Beat Roshan100%
First Blood in Game 1?100%
First Blood in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2?100%
Match Winner51%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?50%
Game 2 Winner0%
Ends in Daytime0%
Both Teams Beat Roshan0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks0%
Any Player Ultra Kill0%
Any Player Rampage0%
Ends in Daytime0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks0%
Any Player Ultra Kill0%
Any Player Rampage0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1?0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?0%

Market context

The upcoming best-of-two series between Team Yandex and OG in the Esports World Cup Group D, set for 12:30 PM ET on 7 July, has attracted a 100% crowd-implied probability favouring Team Yandex. This market resolves to Team Yandex if they win the series, to OG if they prevail, and to a 50-50 split only in cases of cancellation, tie, or excessive delay.

Historical precedents where a single team dominated a short BO2 format in group stages often mirror current pricing, particularly when one side holds a top-tier world ranking against a lower-ranked opponent. Team Yandex, ranked 2nd globally, recently secured the BLAST Slam VII title in early June and maintains high map win rates with their stacked roster of Saksa, DM, watson, and CHIRA_JUNIOR[1]. In contrast, OG, ranked 17th, features Raven alongside Natsumi- and Yopaj but sits lower in power rankings despite qualifying for the tournament[2]. Their last head-to-head encounter on 27 May 2026 saw Team Yandex defeat OG 2-1 in the BLAST Slam Group Stage, reinforcing Yandex’s tactical superiority[5].

Traders should monitor official line-up announcements and draft strategies before the match begins, as the BO2 format amplifies the impact of individual map preparation[1]. Any sudden roster changes or in-game disqualifications could shift the probability, though current form suggests Yandex’s momentum will prevail. Recent coverage from GosuGamers confirms the match is scheduled for 16:30 GMT with no reported delays[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group D. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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