Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Game 3 Winner | 100% |
| Game 4 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 100% |
| Game Handicap: CFO (-1.5) vs Ground Zero Gaming (+1.5) | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 45% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 45% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 45% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 45% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 45% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 45% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 0% |
| Game Handicap: CFO (-2.5) vs Ground Zero Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
Market context
CTBC Flying Oyster’s meeting with Ground Zero Gaming is a live best-of-five in the LCP Group Stage, and the market’s **0% YES** price only makes sense if the contest is already effectively over or the listed contract is mispriced against current play. Sofascore has the match under way, with the teams level at **1-1 after Game 3**, which is a very different setup from a clean pre-match favourite story and implies meaningful series variance remains.[1]
The historical read is that this pairing has been close enough to resist a simple favourite-only frame. Strafe lists the head-to-head at **2-2** across four meetings, with CTBC Flying Oyster taking the most recent series **2-0** on 9 May 2026, while earlier 2026 matches in the rivalry have gone both ways.[4][5] That mix is consistent with a market that should not be priced as a one-sided shutout unless one side has already shown a decisive live edge in the current series, rather than merely a stronger season profile.[4][5]
The main catalysts now are the remaining game results, any official pause or remake notice, and whether either team makes a roster or side-selection change between maps; those are the factors that can still move settlement risk in a BO5. Current match listings also matter because multiple esports trackers are already treating this as an active Swiss-stage series rather than an unplayed fixture, so traders should watch for score updates and tournament admin statements rather than assuming the original schedule remains the operative reference.[1][11]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO5) - LCP Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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