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توقع: LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Game 1 Winner 92% Match Winner 76% Game 2 Winner 59% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 51% Volume: $184K Liquidity: $443K Closes: 8 Aug 2026
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توقع: LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
92% 8% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
92% 8% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 1 Winner92%
Match Winner76%
Game 2 Winner59%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?50%
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5)47%
O/U 2.5 Games44%

Market context

FURIA Esports and LOUD meet in a CBLOL regular-season best-of-three, and the crowd’s 54% yes price implies a near coin flip with a slight lean to FURIA. That is consistent with the most recent head-to-head surprise: FURIA swept LOUD 3-0 in May 2026, even though LOUD still holds the longer-term edge in the fixture overall.[1][3][4]

For traders, the key historical frame is that this matchup has swung between reputation and recent form. LOUD have won 17 of the 21 recorded meetings in one head-to-head archive, but FURIA have taken four of the last five and also beat LOUD 2-1 in April 2025, so the market is weighing a strong legacy profile against a fresher FURIA trend line.[4][12][14] That makes any roster or draft update more important than the raw long-run record.

The main catalysts before settlement are confirmed line-ups, any late substitute news, and whether the series starts on schedule, because the market resolves 50-50 only if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days. Current match listings still show the fixture as scheduled for 7 August, but if either team posts a last-minute roster change or the broadcast schedule slips, that would matter more than general season form.[2][8][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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