Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 55% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 42% |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) | 40% |
| Game 2 Winner | 39% |
| Game 1 Winner | 37% |
| Match Winner | 32% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
KT Rolster face Gen.G in an LCK Legend Group best-of-three, with the market’s 38% YES price sitting below the broader pre-match view that still makes Gen.G the more likely winner. Bookmakers and prediction sites have generally had Gen.G around the 58% to 65% range, while KT have been priced as a clear underdog at roughly 35% to 42%, so the current crowd line is not especially aggressive relative to the wider market.[1][7][13]
The historical frame points in the same direction: Gen.G have been described as the stronger side in 2026, built around Chovy, Canyon and Kiin, and several previews note recent series sweeps or a clear head-to-head edge for Gen.G.[2][9][10] KT’s case is that they have been more competitive than their outright price suggests, with improved consistency and the ability to take maps from stronger opposition, but their long-run record versus Gen.G is still the main reason the favourite retains most of the public support.[2][9][12]
For traders, the main catalysts are the official starting line-ups, any late schedule adjustment, and whether either side is carrying roster uncertainty into the series. The market settles on the scheduled result unless the match is not played, is tied, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, which makes confirmation that the BO3 actually starts on time the most relevant binary risk.[1] Live odds pages also matter because the market can swing sharply if Gen.G’s standard early-game control shows up again, while any sign of KT taking draft or side selection advantages would be the clearest route to pressure the favourite.[6][14]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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