Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
66% | 34% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
66% | 34% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 66% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 65% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 64% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 55% |
| Game 2 Winner | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 53% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 30% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 25% |
| Game 1 Winner | 24% |
Market context
Onion Team face BRUTE in a League of Legends best-of-three fixture within the Hitpoint Masters regular season on 19 August 2026. The match is scheduled for 10:00 AM ET, with settlement closing at 20:00 the same day. Current implied odds place Onion Team at 24% probability of victory, suggesting market confidence in BRUTE as favourites in this matchup.
The 24% valuation reflects a substantial gap between the two rosters' recent competitive standing. BRUTE have established themselves as a stronger regional force, whilst Onion Team have struggled to maintain consistency in the Hitpoint Masters format. Historical head-to-head records between these organisations typically favour BRUTE by a meaningful margin, though best-of-three formats introduce variance that single-game markets would not capture. Teams trailing in perceived strength occasionally perform above expectation in extended series, particularly if they exploit specific draft advantages or exploit opponent weaknesses in mid-game macro play.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through early August, particularly any last-minute substitutions or confirmed absences due to injury or suspension. Hitpoint Masters scheduling occasionally shifts fixtures with minimal notice; confirmation of the 10:00 AM ET start time closer to the date remains important. Recent patch notes affecting champion viability in the two weeks prior to the match could shift draft priorities significantly, potentially favouring one team's champion pool over the other. Any public statements regarding preparation or confidence from either organisation's coaching staff may signal internal assessments of matchup difficulty that diverge from current market pricing.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: Onion Team vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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