Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 75% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 75% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 48% |
| Game 2 Winner | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 38% |
| Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Game Handicap: VKS (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 25% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 20% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 20% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 16% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 16% |
Market context
Vivo Keyd Stars and FURIA Esports meet in a CBLOL regular-season best-of-three with the market close to a coin flip at 48% YES, which fits a series where recent results point in different directions. FURIA have carried the stronger 2026 domestic profile, including a Split 1 title and a 5-2 regular-season mark noted in market previews, while Vivo Keyd Stars have been more volatile, with several recent losses and a half-year win rate around 41% in Bo3 coverage.[4][6][11]
The main historical frame is the head-to-head: FURIA have won four of the last five meetings in one recent match dataset, including a 2-0 sweep in April, and multiple history pages show FURIA with the upper hand across 2026 series as well.[4][7][11] That matters because these teams have repeatedly met in the same domestic environment, so the shorter-term matchup edge is more informative than older all-time splits, which are more mixed across sites.[16][17]
The key catalysts are lineup confirmation and whether either side has arrived with any late roster or schedule change, because there is no injury angle in League of Legends and the edge usually comes from substitutions, timing, or patch preparation. Match pages currently list full starting line-ups for both teams, with Vivo Keyd Stars expected to field scamber, Disamis, Mireu, Jeskla and ZekaS, while FURIA’s projected five are Ayu, Tatu, Tutsz, Guigo and Jojo; traders should also watch for official broadcast timing, as listings vary slightly on start time across databases.[4][17][18]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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