Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 75% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 75% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5) | 48% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 46% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 45% |
| Map 2 Winner | 40% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Match Winner | 32% |
| Map 1 Winner | 31% |
Market context
Eternal Fire meet Team Heretics in a best-of-three at VCT EMEA Group Omega, and the near coin-flip pricing makes sense given how often these teams have split their recent series. The head-to-head is level at 1-1 in 2026, with both meetings going the distance: Eternal Fire won 2-1 in May, before Team Heretics replied with a 2-1 win in the lower bracket later that month.[2][3][10]
The form line leans slightly towards Heretics, which helps explain why the crowd is only marginally behind them at 48% YES. Eternal Fire have a stronger longer-run record, but their recent spell is choppier, with a 1-4 run over their last five series and a 53% win rate across the last six months.[1][2] Team Heretics have shown better short-term momentum, with a 62% recent six-month win rate and wins over stronger opposition at the Esports World Cup, though they have also dropped matches to lower-ranked teams, so their edge is not clean-cut.[2][4][5]
For traders, the main catalyst is line-up stability and map veto context rather than any injury or suspension angle, as no roster changes are indicated in the published match listings and both teams are entered with full five-player starters.[2] The more relevant read-through is schedule pressure: this is a same-day series with a fixed settlement window, so any delay, cancellation or incomplete match could force the market away from a standard winner result under the terms provided.[11]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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