توقع: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil is trading near the upper-$60s to around $70 a barrel, well below the spring spike and far above the low-$50s levels that some banks still pencilled in for 2026 earlier in the year.[20][9][11] That leaves the August 2026 market as a question of whether the contract can retest the mid-$70s rather than a simple move back to the mean. The crowd-implied 1% yes price suggests traders see a very narrow path to an extreme print, which is consistent with a market that has already repriced away from the most bearish 2026 forecasts.[20][8]

Comparable 2026 outlooks are split, which is the key frame for reading this probability. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook still has a much softer 2026 path for WTI than the more hawkish private forecasts, while Reuters’ May poll of analysts put 2026 WTI at $84.63 a barrel and Goldman Sachs has recently trimmed its late-2026 WTI view to about $75 after the Strait of Hormuz deal reduced disruption risk.[1][12][20] That range matters because August sits before year-end rebalancing, so a decisive break in inventories or geopolitics would be needed to force a move beyond the cluster of prevailing forecasts.[1][6][9]

For traders, the immediate catalysts are OPEC+ supply signals, EIA monthly updates, and any fresh disruption to Middle East shipping or US production flows.[1][6][20] The EIA’s June outlook already assumed a gradual normalisation of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with prices easing later in 2027, so any reversal in that assumption would be the fastest route to a repricing.[1] On the downside, if supply growth keeps outpacing demand into Q3, the oversupply narrative flagged by JPMorgan and Goldman could cap August rallies and keep the contract below the levels implied by the more optimistic forecasters.[5][8][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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