توقع: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed following a US–Iran memorandum of understanding finalized on 17 June, which mandates immediate reopening of the waterway and a toll-free period for 60 days [1]. On 25 June, 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait, the highest daily volume recorded since April, according to marine intelligence firm AXSMarine [1][5]. This rebound contrasts sharply with the near-standstill observed during weeks of active conflict earlier in 2026, when traffic dropped to near zero and over 150 ships remained stranded [2][4].

Historically, the strait has never experienced a full day with zero reported transits since the conflict began in February, even during peak escalation when daily counts fell to 17 or 22 vessels [2][3][9]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a zero-transit day aligns with this pattern: the US naval blockade is set to lift completely by 19 July, and Iran is expected to restore traffic to pre-war levels within the same window [1]. Traders should monitor the 19 July deadline for blockade removal and any announcements regarding Iran’s authority over tolls after the 60-day exemption expires [1]. A sudden closure would likely stem from renewed attacks or mine-laying claims, both of which have previously disrupted flow but never halted it entirely [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.