توقع: Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

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Market context

The Iranian government has publicly confirmed plans to impose mandatory service fees on commercial vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz, a move that directly challenges the recent US-Iran peace memorandum which stipulated toll-free passage for a 60-day negotiation window. While the interim agreement currently waives these charges, Iranian officials distinguish between illegal "tolls" and legitimate fees for security and navigation services, insisting the policy will apply generally or to specific subcategories of vessels once the negotiation period expires. This distinction is critical, as the market resolves only if an official, announced policy is enacted, not merely isolated demands for payment.

Historically, coastal states like Oman have successfully implemented voluntary service fees akin to those in the Straits of Malacca, yet Iran's insistence on mandatory collection creates significant geopolitical friction. The current 6% implied probability reflects the high barrier of the 60-day waiver and the open objections from the US, which views any fee as a "dangerous precedent" for global trade. However, Iranian diplomats have stated that if no agreement is reached with Oman, Tehran will impose unilateral fees, suggesting the catalyst for resolution lies in the expiration of the current memorandum rather than immediate enforcement.

Traders should monitor the precise end date of the 60-day peace negotiation period and any subsequent diplomatic announcements regarding the joint fee framework with Oman. Recent reporting from the Middle East Eye indicates that Iran's deputy foreign minister has already warned of unilateral action if talks fail, making the post-negotiation window the primary timeframe for potential market settlement. The key dependency is whether Tehran transitions from verbal threats to an officially published policy mandating these charges for all commercial traffic before the settlement deadline in August 2026.

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