توقع: Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz despite US demands for a public pledge to cease attacks, with the latest incident occurring in June 2026 when an IRGC strike paused international escort operations and threatened peace talks [2]. The United States explicitly requires Iran to issue a declarative statement confirming all channels are open and that ships will not be targeted, a condition senior officials framed as essential for negotiations to proceed [1][9].

Historically, Iran has conditioned passage on compliance with its naval directives, charging up to $2 million for safe transit and barring vessels linked to the US or Israel, rather than offering blanket non-aggression commitments [3]. While Oman reported that Iran affirmed commitment to international law and toll-free passage during a recent diplomatic meeting, this fell short of the unambiguous, public declaration of a policy not to attack ships required for this market [2].

Traders should monitor the outcome of peace negotiations scheduled in Oman, led by US Vice President JD Vance, where the US demand for a public pledge remains the primary sticking point [5]. Any qualifying announcement must be a clear, official statement from the Iranian government or an authorised representative explicitly committing not to attack ships transiting the strait; internal power struggles within Iran have previously complicated the ability to reach and sustain such deals [1][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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