توقع: Iran successfully targets shipping by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iranian forces have not yet conducted a kinetic strike on or seized control of a commercial ship, leaving the crowd-implied probability at 0% despite escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Since late February 2026, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has blocked shipping traffic, boarded merchant vessels, and laid sea mines in retaliation for US and Israeli air strikes, creating a "dual blockade" with the US Navy[3]. While Iran has attacked ships using speedboats, drones, and missiles, and claimed complete control of the strait by mid-April, no incident has yet met the market's strict resolution criteria requiring an explicit claim by the Islamic Republic or confirmation of origin from Iranian territory[3].

Traders must monitor announcements regarding the June 17 ceasefire memorandum, which is currently at a breaking point following an alleged Iranian drone strike on the tanker Kiku in April and a subsequent US retaliation[4]. The immediate catalyst is the July 7 incident where an oil tanker was struck by an "unknown projectile" off Oman, prompting US Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to warn that final negotiations will not commence if threats persist[6]. With US Central Command citing continued Iranian aggression against commercial shipping as justification for renewed strikes on Iranian surveillance infrastructure, the risk of a direct kinetic engagement remains high, though the market requires explicit Iranian attribution to resolve to "Yes"[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Iran successfully targets shipping by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.