توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has surged to its highest level in two months following a deal to halt the US-Iran war, with 25 vessels crossing on Thursday—more than triple the daily average recorded since early March [1]. This reopening stems from a memorandum finalised on June 17, which guarantees immediate navigation and mandates the US to lift its naval blockade by July 19, while Iran pledges best efforts to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same timeframe [3]. Despite this progress, the strait remains effectively closed for most commercial throughput, with daily transits near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60, leaving over 150 ships stranded and war-risk insurance premiums at extreme levels [5].

Historical precedents frame the current 0% crowd-implied probability as a rational assessment of structural fragility rather than mere pessimism. Previous brief reopenings, such as the one on April 21 that collapsed within a day, demonstrate how quickly geopolitical tensions can sever the waterway again [5]. Pre-war averages of 108 crossings daily have plummeted to 22 as of early April, an 87% collapse that underscores the severity of the disruption [10]. Even with the recent deal, the agreement does not clarify whether Iran retains ultimate authority over the strait, and vessels are permitted toll-free passage for only 60 days, implying future toll imposition could further suppress traffic [3].

Traders must monitor the July 19 deadline for the US naval blockade lift, as failure to execute this could reignite hostilities and halt the fragile recovery [3]. The IMF PortWatch data dependency is critical; ships not reported by this agency will not count toward the 60-transit threshold, meaning even a surge in physical traffic may not resolve the market if tracking gaps persist [2]. Recent reports indicate that some tanker owners continue transiting without AIS, suggesting extreme possibility of unrecorded movements that could skew the official 7-day moving average [2]. Any escalation in missile threats or renewed toll demands before mid-July would likely invalidate the current recovery trajectory.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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