توقع: US announces end of Iranian blockade by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States officially reinstated its naval blockade on Iranian ports on 14 July 2026, following President Trump’s 13 July announcement amid escalating strikes and a collapsed ceasefire. CENTCOM confirmed the measure targets all vessels entering or leaving Iranian coastal areas regardless of flag, enforced by over 15 warships and 10,000 personnel, with a new 20% toll introduced for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz[1][2][3].

Historically, US naval blockades on Iran have been lifted only after formal diplomatic agreements, such as the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that ended hostilities and terminated the previous blockade in exchange for asset restoration and nuclear concessions[9][12]. The current 12% implied probability reflects the rarity of such reversals without a negotiated settlement, especially given Trump’s explicit stance that the blockade persists until a deal is reached[13].

Traders should monitor CENTCOM statements for any official announcement of suspension, lifting, or termination, as well as developments in ceasefire negotiations or Memorandum of Understanding formalisations. A key catalyst would be a White House press briefing confirming a new agreement, similar to Vice President Vance’s June 2026 announcement preceding the last blockade lift[9][11]. Any shift in Trump’s public position on the Hormuz toll or blockade duration would also signal a potential resolution trigger.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US announces end of Iranian blockade by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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