توقع: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 June 2026, US President Donald Trump and Iran’s president signed an initial pact to end hostilities, mandating Tehran to dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile while suspending key sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz toll-free for 60 days[1][7]. This interim agreement, dubbed the Islamabad deal, explicitly launched a 60-day negotiation window toward a final nuclear settlement, though Trump retained the option to resume military actions if talks falter[1][4]. Despite the signing, Supreme Leader Khamenei had not yet granted final approval at the time of disclosure, leaving the deal’s permanence contingent on internal Iranian consensus[4].

Historically, comparable US-Iran diplomatic breakthroughs—such as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—initially gained traction but collapsed when core demands (like a 20-year enrichment freeze versus Iran’s proposed 10-year freeze) remained unresolved[5]. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a final deal by August 2026 reflects this pattern: while interim agreements often secure immediate concessions (e.g., frozen asset releases and temporary sanctions relief), they rarely translate into permanent, mutually signed final instruments without addressing the nuclear oversight sequencing gap[3][6]. The 100% “Yes” probability on Polymarket for a deal by 30 June 2026 likely misinterpreted the interim pact as final, underscoring the market’s tendency to overvalue short-term diplomatic gestures[2].

Traders must monitor three catalysts: (1) Supreme Leader Khamenei’s formal ratification of the Islamabad deal, which remains pending; (2) technical talks on nuclear inspection sequencing, where Iran has resisted unconditional access to damaged sites[3][6]; and (3) the 60-day negotiation deadline, which expires in mid-August 2026, triggering potential US military escalation if no final instrument is signed[1][4]. Recent AP News reporting confirms that while the interim pact is effective, the final deal’s timeline hinges on Iran’s cooperation with international inspectors—a condition Tehran has partially contested[1][3]. Without Khamenei’s approval and resolution of inspection disputes, the 0% probability for a final deal remains robust.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.