توقع: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is tracking whether Washington and Tehran produce an **official diplomatic agreement** on Hormuz before the deadline, not whether shipping merely keeps moving. That distinction matters because the current public record already includes a June memorandum of understanding that set out immediate reopening terms and a 60-day follow-on process, so traders are effectively pricing the chance of a later, qualifying instrument rather than the original framework itself.[5][7][17]

History argues for caution around the 68% crowd price. Reuters reported on 1 July that talks in Doha were still struggling with technical issues on maritime traffic and incentives, while a Reuters update on 4 August said the latest shipping attack in the strait underlined how fragile the process remains, with the US and Iran giving conflicting accounts of whether talks are even under way.[2][1] That is the kind of backdrop where headline optimism can coexist with thin legal substance: a memorandum, de-escalation, or mediated statement may not satisfy a market that requires an agreement establishing binding Iranian commitments on vessel traffic.[5][16]

The main catalysts are therefore procedural, not military. Traders should watch for any signed text, joint communiqué, or mediator-led announcement from Qatar or Oman, plus whether either side confirms the reopening terms in a form that matches the market’s definition of a diplomatic agreement.[1][3][6] Reuters noted on 4 August that Trump said talks were under way and gave Tehran a “last chance”, while Iran denied any negotiations were scheduled, so any shift in wording from denial to formal acknowledgement would be the most important near-term repricing trigger.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.