توقع: Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have already met six times since Trump’s second term began in January 2025, with their most recent encounter occurring on 11 February 2026 to discuss renewed US nuclear negotiations with Iran[1][9]. These summits, held at venues including Mar-a-Lago and the White House, consistently centred on Iran’s nuclear programme, Gaza, and regional security, establishing a pattern of high-frequency, issue-driven contact rather than sporadic diplomacy[1][2]. Given this history of regular in-person interaction—Netanyahu has made more official US visits than any other global leader in the past year—the current 1% crowd-implied probability for a future meeting appears detached from the established bilateral rhythm[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming US–Iran diplomatic milestones, particularly any scheduled trilateral talks involving Israel, Qatar, and the US, which could necessitate a fresh Netanyahu–Trump meeting to align strategic positions[12]. A catalyst would be an official announcement of Netanyahu’s next US visit, especially if tied to Iran-related negotiations or a Gaza ceasefire breakthrough, as past meetings were often impromptu responses to shifting Iran policy[1][10]. With the settlement window ending in July 2026 and no public indication of a scheduled meeting beyond February, the market’s low probability may reflect uncertainty over whether Iran tensions will escalate enough to force another summit, or whether diplomacy will proceed without direct leader-to-leader contact[1][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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