توقع: Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Graham Platner, the Democratic nominee for Maine’s 2026 U.S. Senate race, voluntarily withdrew on July 8 after sexual assault allegations prompted key allies—including Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand—to abandon his campaign[1][5]. Maine law now allows the Maine Democratic Party to nominate a replacement by July 27, with the party having already voted to hold a state convention to select a successor[2][3].

Historically, no political party in Maine has ever replaced its nominee in an election, making this a unprecedented procedural test[2]. The market’s 1% YES probability reflects both the novelty of the situation and the uncertainty over whether a new nominee will be formally declared before the deadline, despite multiple Democrats—such as Troy Jackson—already expressing interest[1][3].

Traders should monitor official announcements from the Maine Democratic Party regarding the convention’s outcome and timeline, as well as any further withdrawals or endorsements that could shift the field[2][3]. The party’s stated commitment to an “open and inclusive” process suggests a deliberate selection, but the tight two-week window adds pressure that could lead to delays or ambiguity[2][3]. Recent reporting from NBC News and the New York Times confirms that at least six potential alternatives are being explored, yet no consensus candidate has emerged as of July 9[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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Can I bet on individual matches?

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Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.