توقع: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is whether Washington and Tehran have actually signed or adopted a qualifying **written diplomatic instrument** on nuclear issues by the market’s deadline, not whether talks have merely continued or produced a public outline. The crowd at 0% is therefore pricing the gap between a tentative framework and a formally binding text.

That gap has mattered in previous Iran-US rounds. In February, Reuters reported agreement on only “guiding principles”, while both sides still said “a lot of details” remained and Iran would return later with proposals.[4][6] In June, by contrast, AP and Reuters described an initial memorandum of understanding with a 60-day negotiating period, while Al Jazeera said mediators reported a roadmap to a final agreement within 60 days.[14][9][1] Comparable cases show that early frameworks can hold headlines without becoming the final signed instrument this market requires, especially when sensitive items such as enrichment limits, sanctions relief and inspection access are still being worked through.[8][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are any confirmation of a fully executed text, any formal adoption without signature, and whether the 60-day process is extended by mutual consent.[8] Reuters reported on 12 June that a signing ceremony was being explored in Europe, but the exact location was unsettled at that stage.[7] Since the June deal, CNBC reported the IAEA said the memorandum gives inspectors access to Iranian nuclear sites, which suggests implementation channels are moving, but that is still distinct from a final bilateral deal under the market rules.[5] Any fresh Reuters or AP dispatch on a signed annex, a follow-on round, or a deadline extension is likely to move the line fastest.[14][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.