توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 daily vessels, leaving over 150 ships stranded and Brent crude surging on supply disruption. Although a US-Iran agreement signed on 17 June guarantees immediate commercial navigation, traffic has only recently begun to pick up, with 25 vessels crossing on a single Thursday—more than triple the post-March average—but still far below the threshold required for this market to resolve as "Yes" [1][3].

Historical precedents show that brief reopenings, such as the one on 21 April 2026 which closed again within 24 hours, fail to sustain the seven-day moving average needed to trigger a "Yes" outcome, mirroring the current fragility where war-risk insurance premiums sit at over 16 times normal rates [3]. The crowd-implied 21% probability reflects the precarious balance between the June 17 memorandum and the persistent threat of renewed strikes, as seen when traffic dropped significantly over a weekend following a four-day exchange of attacks in late June [7].

Traders must monitor the US naval blockade lift deadline of 19 July, a critical dependency under the memorandum that could stabilise traffic if fully enforced, alongside Iran’s commitment to restore pre-war levels within the same timeframe [4]. Any announcement regarding Iranian tolls after the 60-day toll-free window, or fresh radio hailing from Iranian forces prompting U-turns, would immediately derail recovery efforts, as carriers have already suspended shipments despite intermittent flows [5]. The settlement hinges entirely on whether the next two weeks of sustained transit can overcome the current near-zero throughput and stranded vessel backlog [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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