توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is still operating well below the level needed to clear this market, with Reuters reporting just three to six commodity vessel transits a day in mid-July and JMIC saying commercial traffic continued at reduced levels after renewed strikes. That leaves a large gap to IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average threshold of **60** arrivals, and recent tracker data has pointed more towards a fragile recovery than a full return to normal. [16][17]

For context, the route has already shown that traffic can rebound quickly when security conditions improve: Reuters said flows were around seven vessels a day in early April, then a June report cited traffic stabilising at roughly 30 to 60 crossings over the prior week before the latest setback. But that still sat well under the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 125 to 140 daily passages, so the market’s 10% YES price is consistent with a path that requires not just one busy day, but a sustained seven-day average above 60. [3][9][6]

The main catalysts are military de-escalation, any formal reopening or re-blockade statements from Iran or the US, and whether shipping firms regain confidence enough to stop rerouting or waiting outside the chokepoint. Reuters has repeatedly linked falls in traffic to fresh attacks and closure claims, while IMF Portwatch only resolves on its published 7-day moving average, so traders should watch both headline security risk and the daily vessel counts feeding that average. [14][16][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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