توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still well below normal, even after a partial mid-year thaw in tensions. Kpler data cited by the New York Times showed only 25 ships crossing on one day in late June, and 11 the next, with recent flows still “considerably lower” than pre-conflict levels despite some improvement[8][11]. Earlier reporting described traffic at around 5% of pre-war levels, with vessels stranded in the Gulf and several major carriers suspending routes during the crisis[2][3][4].

The market is anchored to a very specific threshold: IMF Portwatch must publish a 7-day moving average of at least 60 arrivals for a date before 30 September 2026. That means traders should watch not just headline diplomacy, but whether sustained commercial normalisation is reflected in Portwatch’s rolling average, which can lag short-lived spikes in individual sailings. Reuters reported in April that six tankers had been turned back by the US blockade and that hundreds of vessels remained stranded, while a June report said the US and Iran had reached a preliminary reopening agreement and the blockade had been lifted[3][8]. The key catalysts are any follow-through on that deal, the pace of mine-clearing and security guarantees, and whether insurers and carriers restore regular service rather than occasional transits[6][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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