Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
20% | 80% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
20% | 80% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 20% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12% |
| Jon Ossoff | 10% |
| Kamala Harris | 7% |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 4% |
| Andy Beshear | 2% |
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% |
| Jon Stewart | 2% |
| Ro Khanna | 2% |
| Wes Moore | 1% |
| Stephen A. Smith | 1% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1% |
| Mark Cuban | 1% |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% |
| Raphael Warnock | 1% |
| Cory Booker | 1% |
| Tim Walz | 1% |
| Michelle Obama | 1% |
| Mark Kelly | 1% |
| Gina Raimondo | 1% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 1% |
| Roy Cooper | 1% |
| John Fetterman | 1% |
| Jared Polis | 1% |
| Barack Obama | 1% |
| Hillary Clinton | 1% |
| Liz Cheney | 1% |
| Bernie Sanders | 1% |
| Phil Murphy | 1% |
| LeBron James | 1% |
| Hunter Biden | 1% |
| George Clooney | 1% |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% |
| MrBeast | 1% |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% |
| Oprah Winfrey | 1% |
| Andrew Yang | 1% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 1% |
| Kim Kardashian | 1% |
| Chris Murphy | 1% |
| Jasmine Crockett | 1% |
| Ruben Gallego | 1% |
| James Talarico | 1% |
| Graham Platner | 1% |
| Person P | 0% |
| Person Q | 0% |
| Person R | 0% |
| Person S | 0% |
| Person T | 0% |
| Person U | 0% |
| Person V | 0% |
| Person W | 0% |
| Person X | 0% |
| Person Y | 0% |
| Person Z | 0% |
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| Person CO | 0% |
| Person CP | 0% |
| Person CQ | 0% |
| Person CR | 0% |
| Person CS | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The توقع: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 prediction market currently prices this outcome at 20% YES. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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