توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has surged to its highest level in two months following a deal to halt the US-Iran war, with 25 commercial vessels crossing the waterway on a single Thursday—more than triple the daily average recorded since early March[1]. This rebound contrasts sharply with the near-standstill that persisted for weeks after Iran reversed a brief reopening in April amid security incidents[6]. Historical data from IMF PortWatch shows daily transits plummeted from roughly 100 ships in February to an average of just six between March and May, before the June 17 agreement guaranteed immediate navigation restarts[2][3].

The 68% crowd-implied probability reflects the momentum from this June surge, yet traders must monitor whether the US lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports by the July 19 deadline stipulated in the memorandum of understanding[3]. Iran is expected to exert “best efforts” to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same timeframe, though the agreement leaves ambiguity over whether tolls may eventually be imposed after the initial 60-day toll-free window[3]. Key catalysts include the next weekly IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average release and any escalation in military activity that could force ships to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope again, adding up to 14 extra transit days[4]. Sustained volumes above 60 daily transits remain the critical threshold for the market to resolve “Yes”.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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