توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from passing through the Strait of Hormuz as tensions between the US and Iran remain at a critical peak following weekend military strikes. The current closure has reduced daily transit calls to a near standstill, with IMF PortWatch recording an average of just six vessels per day between March and May, a stark drop from the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 100 ships. This strategic chokepoint, which previously facilitated 20% of global oil supply, is now a tollbooth under Iranian control, forcing commercial tankers to anchor outside the waterway while awaiting a peace deal that has yet to materialise.

Historical precedents suggest that even brief reopenings fail to sustain traffic levels, as seen during the two-week ceasefire in April when vessel numbers remained low despite the strait technically opening. The 2% crowd-implied probability reflects this pattern, acknowledging that a seven-day moving average of 60 arrivals is unlikely given the current volatility and the absence of a comprehensive resolution. Previous escalations since February 28 have consistently driven traffic to near zero, and the recent US naval blockade declaration further diminishes the chance of normalcy returning before the July 15 settlement window closes.

Traders must monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a prerequisite stipulated in the June 17 agreement for restoring pre-war traffic levels. Any delay in this lift or failure by Iran to exert its "best efforts" to normalise flows will likely keep transit calls suppressed, as Tehran has implied it may have laid mines in the strait. Recent reports from AXSMarine indicate that while 25 vessels crossed on Thursday, this surge remains insufficient to meet the 60-arrival threshold, and the lack of progress in peace negotiations suggests the blockade will persist, keeping the market firmly in "No" territory.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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