Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 82% |
| Moderate Party (M) | 18% |
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 1% |
| Centre Party (C) | 0% |
| Left Party (V) | 0% |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 0% |
| Green Party (MP) | 0% |
| Liberals (L) | 0% |
| Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 0% |
| Party A | 0% |
| Party B | 0% |
| Party C | 0% |
| Party D | 0% |
| Party E | 0% |
| Party F | 0% |
| Party G | 0% |
| Party H | 0% |
| Party I | 0% |
| Party J | 0% |
| Party K | 0% |
| Party L | 0% |
| Party M | 0% |
| Party N | 0% |
| Party O | 0% |
| Party P | 0% |
| Party Q | 0% |
| Party R | 0% |
| Party S | 0% |
| Party T | 0% |
| Party U | 0% |
| Party V | 0% |
| Party W | 0% |
| Party X | 0% |
| Party Y | 0% |
| Party Z | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The توقع: Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place prediction market currently prices this outcome at 82% YES. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Swedis…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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