توقع: Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in office as President of the United States, with the current 7% probability reflecting the historical rarity of a president resigning or being removed before the end of a term. Only one US president, Richard Nixon, has resigned, doing so in 1974 amid impeachment proceedings that never reached the Senate. While Trump was impeached twice during his first term in 2019 and 2021, the Senate acquitted him on all counts in both instances, with conviction requiring 67 votes—a threshold never met [1][2][5]. No president has ever been removed via the 25th Amendment’s Section 4, which requires a congressional vote to confirm incapacity, and such a move remains politically untested in modern practice [9].

Traders should monitor developments in any new impeachment inquiries, particularly if the House initiates formal articles of impeachment, as this would be the first necessary step toward potential removal [4]. Key catalysts include shifts in Senate composition, public statements from Trump’s legal team regarding health or political pressure, and any formal invocation of the 25th Amendment by the Vice President or Cabinet. Recent reporting notes that the Smithsonian removed references to Trump’s impeachments from its presidency exhibit, hinting at evolving political narratives that could influence future legislative actions [8]. With the settlement window closing on 31 December 2026, any announcement of resignation or removal before that date resolves the market to “Yes” immediately, regardless of when the change takes effect.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Trump out as President before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.