توقع: Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The immediate story is whether any additional country can formally normalise relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords before the end of 2026. The market is trading at **6% YES**, which implies traders see a narrow path to a signed, publicly acknowledged agreement before the deadline, not merely statements of intent.[1][3]

The historical read is important: the Accords began in 2020 with the UAE and Bahrain, later adding Morocco and Sudan, and Kazakhstan formally entered in early 2026, showing the framework can still expand.[1][4][9] But expansion has usually required a specific combination of U.S. mediation, regional incentives, and a government willing to take political risk. Reuters reported in March 2025 that Donald Trump said more countries would be added and the White House highlighted Saudi Arabia as a possible candidate, yet Saudi officials have remained cautious because of the Gaza war and the wider regional climate.[7] That makes the market’s low probability consistent with a history of sporadic breakthroughs rather than steady momentum.[1][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are any official U.S. or Israeli announcements, direct talks confirmed by the relevant government, and whether a candidate country moves from exploratory diplomacy to a signed text before 31 December 2026.[3] Somaliland remains the most concrete recent case after Israel recognised it in December 2025 and Somaliland pledged to join the Accords, but the market still needs a formal agreement publicly acknowledged by both sides for settlement.[1] Any credible report of a scheduled signing, especially involving Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon, or Somaliland, would be the sort of event most likely to move this line.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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