توقع: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world issue is whether Israel and Hamas will publicly agree the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, after the first-stage truce and hostage-prisoner exchange were put in place. That matters because the next stage is where the hard concessions sit: further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and some form of interim governance and security arrangement for Gaza.[1][2][15]

The 67% implied yes probability looks consistent with a market that expects negotiations to continue, but not necessarily to close quickly. In comparable ceasefire tracks, phase two has repeatedly been the sticking point: talks were supposed to move on within days of phase one, yet BBC and AP reporting showed repeated delays, stalled rounds in Cairo, and no progress on the core issues of troop withdrawal and disarmament.[3][9][11] Reuters and AP coverage in late 2025 and early 2026 also indicated that officials talked up a transition to phase two, but actual implementation remained vulnerable to disputes over compliance and sequencing.[15][12]

The main catalysts are formal statements from Israel, Hamas, Egypt, Qatar, and the US, plus whether mediators announce a new round in Cairo or set out text on the contested terms.[1][9][11] Traders should watch for any verified announcement on the remaining hostage and prisoner files, Israeli withdrawal maps, and the shape of a technocratic Gaza administration or international security force, since those are the usual prerequisites for a publicly announced mutual agreement.[2][14][15] Continued reports of ceasefire violations or suspended talks would weigh on the chance of a clean phase-two deal before the market settles.[1][3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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