توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from passing through the Strait of Hormuz as tensions between the US and Iran remain at a critical peak following weekend military strikes. The current 16% crowd-implied probability reflects the near-total shutdown of commercial transit, with daily calls plummeting from roughly 100 vessels in February to an average of just six between March and May[1]. This collapse mirrors the brief reopening in April during a two-week ceasefire, which saw traffic surge to 25 vessels before confusion and low confidence caused numbers to drop again[1][2]. Historically, such spikes have been fragile; even when agreements guarantee immediate navigation, actual volumes often fail to sustain the 60-vessel threshold required for this market to resolve as "Yes"[4].

Traders must monitor the US naval blockade lift deadline of 19 July, a prerequisite in the June 17 memorandum of understanding that could unlock Iranian efforts to restore pre-war traffic levels[4]. The market hinges on whether Iran will maintain authority over the strait or impose tolls, as the agreement only permits toll-free passage for 60 days while new arrangements are negotiated[4]. Recent data from IMF PortWatch shows a 7-day moving average of 32.57 vessels as of late June, far below the 60-vessel target[7]. Any announcement confirming the removal of Iranian-imposed tolls or the clearing of suspected mines would be the primary catalyst for a rapid recovery in transit calls[3]. Without a definitive peace deal restoring confidence, shipping executives continue to await safe passage, keeping the probability of normal traffic by July 31 low[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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