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توقع: Next French Presidential Election

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Next French Presidential Election" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Marine Le Pen 31% Édouard Philippe 26% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13% Jordan Bardella 3% Volume: $116.1M Liquidity: $11.8M Closes: 30 Apr 2027
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توقع: Next French Presidential Election

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 31% 69% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 31% 69% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Marine Le Pen31%
Édouard Philippe26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%
Jordan Bardella3%
Gabriel Attal3%
François Hollande3%
David Lisnard2%
Bruno Retailleau2%
Raphaël Glucksmann2%
Dominique de Villepin2%
Sébastien Lecornu2%
Éric Zemmour1%
Sarah Knafo1%
Xavier Bertrand0%
Laurent Wauquiez0%
François Ruffin0%
Marine Tondelier0%
Fabien Roussel0%
Olivier Faure0%
Ségolène Royal0%
François Asselineau0%
Clémentine Autain0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan0%
Michel Barnier0%
Valérie Pécresse0%
François Bayrou0%
Élisabeth Borne0%
Yaël Braun-Pivet0%
Jean Castex0%
Gérald Darmanin0%
Carole Delga0%
Bernard Cazeneuve0%
Manuel Bompard0%
Mathilde Panot0%
Other0%
Juan Branco0%
Clémence Guetté0%
Karim Bouamrane0%
Lucie Castets0%
Yannick Jadot0%
François Baroin0%
Marion Maréchal0%
Person J0%
Person K0%
Person L0%
Person M0%
Person N0%
Person O0%
Person P0%
Person Q0%
Person R0%
Person S0%
Person T0%
Person U0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
Person AA0%
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Person AQ0%
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Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
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Person AY0%
Person AZ0%
Person BA0%
Person BB0%
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Person CA0%
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Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 31% probability to توقع: next french presidential election. The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follow…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Next French Presidential Election. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
Priya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi AnalystandAlex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market Analyst

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