توقع: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Russia will hold its first State Duma election since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 18–20 September 2026, with 450 seats contested across a newly redrawn constituency map. The market currently assigns a 56% probability that United Russia (ER) will gain the most seats compared to the pre-election baseline, reflecting its entrenched dominance. Historically, United Russia secured 324 seats (72%) in 2021, while the Communist Party won only 57 seats (12.67%)[6]. In the current PolitPro poll trend, the governing coalition of United Russia and LDPR holds 66.2% of seats, with United Russia alone commanding 46.4% of votes[1]. This pattern suggests that significant seat gains for opposition parties remain unlikely under the existing mixed electoral system, which combines party lists with single-member constituencies and heavily favours the incumbent.

Traders should monitor the formal confirmation of voting dates, the final candidate lists for United Russia’s party list, and any shifts in regional polling ahead of the election. The party list is expected to be headed by Dmitry Medvedev, alongside Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and other high-profile figures[4]. Recent primaries saw only 58 war veterans secure nominations out of nearly 20,000 applicants, indicating limited success for the Kremlin’s push to integrate veterans into politics[5]. Additionally, the Communist Party’s primaries attracted around 2.5 million voters, with paper ballots dominating online participation[5]. Any unexpected changes in the candidate lineup or regional vote intentions, as tracked by WCIOM and FOM polls, could alter the probability landscape[1]. The election will also include voting in occupied Ukrainian territories, where 11 new constituencies have been created[4].

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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