توقع: # of views of MrBeast video week 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

MrBeast’s next long-form upload will need to clear a 7-day view bracket, and the market is currently pricing a **0% YES** outcome, so the crowd is effectively saying the chosen bracket is wrong rather than merely unlikely. Recent Polymarket pricing on comparable MrBeast week-one contracts has clustered around the mid-to-upper tens of millions, with one live dashboard showing **60–70M at 40%** and **50–60M at 32%**, which implies traders still see a broad distribution rather than a single locked-in number.[2]

The best comparables are his own recent launches, because this market resolves off the first seven days of the next eligible video only, not Shorts or previews.[3][7] Public trackers and market write-ups around the April 2026 upload “50 Streamers Fight for $1,000,000” said the video was around **80.9 million views at day seven** and was the market benchmark for the upper end of the range, while other market commentary noted that several recent MrBeast uploads have finished below **70M** in week one.[3][5] That makes the key comparison for traders whether the next upload matches his very strongest recent performance or reverts closer to the low- to mid-60M band.[5][6]

The main catalyst is simply the timing and format of the next upload, because the market only counts the first posted YouTube video after creation and has an outside deadline: if no video appears by **31 August 2026, 11:59 PM ET**, it resolves to the lowest bracket.[3][4][7] Traders should watch MrBeast’s channel feed for upload timing, since any delay pushes the contract towards the fail-safe outcome, while a high-profile challenge-style release would matter most for first-week velocity.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: # of views of MrBeast video week 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.