توقع: Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin remains the de facto leader of Russia, having held power for 27 years, a tenure second only to post-Tsarist rulers in Russian history[5]. The current 10% crowd-implied probability for his removal by December 2026 aligns with historical precedents where Russian leaders only exit via sudden, unexpected resignations rather than gradual political erosion. Boris Yeltsin’s surprise resignation in 1999, which instantly elevated Putin to acting president, stands as the primary comparable case, demonstrating that such transitions occur abruptly and without prior public warning[2][6]. Recent constitutional proposals aimed at extending Putin’s influence beyond the presidency suggest a deliberate strategy to secure his legacy, further reducing the likelihood of an unplanned departure before his current term ends[1].

Traders must monitor for any official announcements of resignation or removal, as the market resolves immediately upon such news regardless of when the change takes effect. Key catalysts include shifts in the State Council appointments, potential health crises, or internal factional conflicts within the Kremlin that could force a leadership change. A recent provocative claim from a former oil tycoon has shaken Russia’s political circles, suggesting that unexpected theories about Putin’s resignation could emerge from opposition figures[9]. Additionally, any moves to place the Russian constitution above international law, as proposed by Putin, may trigger significant domestic or international repercussions that could destabilise his position[1]. Watch for scheduled political events in late 2025 and 2026, where succession plans might be clarified or disrupted.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.