توقع: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% since late 2025, with no cuts enacted in 2026 so far. Following three reductions in 2025, the central bank adopted a prudent, observational stance, and the latest dot plot now suggests a single cut later in the year is the most likely outcome, though it may not materialise[1][2].

Historically, such probabilities require scrutiny against shifting policy chairs and inflation data. Jerome Powell’s term expires in May 2026, and Kevin Warsh’s inaugural meeting in June removed language favouring cuts, with nine of 19 participants now projecting a hike by year-end[3][5]. This hawkish pivot, driven by Iran war-related inflation spikes, makes the crowd-implied 78% probability of any cuts appear optimistic, as Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan now forecast no cuts until 2027[4][6].

Traders must monitor upcoming FOMC announcements, inflation prints, and labour market reports, as policy remains data-dependent[3]. The CME FedWatch tool currently prices a near-100% chance of unchanged rates after the March meeting, but Warsh’s comments have shifted futures markets to expect a hike by October[1][5]. Any emergency cut outside scheduled meetings would count, yet the prevailing trajectory points toward stability or increases rather than reductions[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.