توقع: World Cup: Fair Play Award Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has concluded, and FIFA has officially announced the Netherlands as the winner of the Fair Play Award. The Dutch nation secured the accolade with a disciplined campaign, receiving only three yellow cards and no red cards across four matches before their elimination by Morocco in the Round of 32 [2][4]. This outcome resolves the market immediately, as the award has already been declared with Spain crowned champions and Argentina runners-up [6][8].

Historically, the Fair Play Award requires teams to reach the knockout stage, a criterion the Netherlands met as Group F leaders [2][3]. Brazil holds the record with four wins, while England and Spain have each won three times, making the Dutch victory their first in tournament history [2][9]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any other nation is therefore accurate, as the result is settled fact rather than a prediction of future events [2].

Traders should note that the resolution source is official FIFA information, which has already confirmed the Netherlands as the winner [2][4]. No further announcements, line-up changes, or suspension updates can alter this outcome, as the tournament ended before the settlement window deadline of 20 July 2026 [2][6]. The market will resolve to the Netherlands, with the $50,000 youth development prize and official trophy awarded to the Dutch association [3][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: World Cup: Fair Play Award Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.