توقع: World Cup: Player to score

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway, yet the market for the listed player to score sits at a 0% implied probability, signalling a near-total consensus that the individual will not feature or will be unable to net. This extreme pricing mirrors historical cases where elite strikers were ruled out before the tournament due to injury or non-selection, such as when top contenders like Neymar or Kevin De Bruyne were absent from their squads, rendering their scoring markets valueless. In those instances, the 0% line was not a speculative guess but a factual reflection of the player’s exclusion from the fixture list, a pattern that currently defines this market’s valuation.

Traders must monitor official squad announcements and injury updates from the player’s national federation, as a late confirmation of fitness or selection could instantly invalidate the current pricing. Recent reports indicate Kylian Mbappé remains the Golden Boot favourite with France, while Erling Haaland faces pressure due to Norway’s expected early exit, limiting his goal window [1][8]. Any news regarding suspensions, line-up changes, or medical clearances for the listed player will be the primary catalyst; without such confirmation, the 0% probability is likely to persist until the settlement window closes on 20 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: World Cup: Player to score. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.