توقع: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship flight test was cleanly aborted at T‑0 on 16 July 2026 when several Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite, triggering an automatic launch hold just before liftoff from Pad 2 at Starbase, Texas[3][5]. The vehicle showed no tracking issues during the countdown, and Elon Musk indicated a new attempt would follow “hopefully” in a few days[3].

Historically, late‑countdown aborts on Starship have rarely killed a test campaign; Flight 9 and Flight 11 both saw T‑0 holds for engine or ignition anomalies before succeeding on subsequent attempts within a week[3][5]. Given that Flight 12 achieved a successful second splashdown of a Block 3 Ship and that Flight 13 is the second flight of Block 3 using Booster 20 and Ship 40, the 0% crowd‑implied probability appears to reflect timing uncertainty rather than a fundamental failure of the vehicle or mission profile[4][9].

Traders should watch for SpaceX’s official re‑target announcement, the next 90‑minute launch window, and any FAA advisory updates tied to the static‑fire investigation that was resolved earlier in July[3][7]. A successful re‑static fire of all 33 Super Heavy engines and confirmation that Ship 40’s six Raptor 3s are nominal will be the immediate green lights, while the deployment of 20 V3 Starlink satellites remains the primary mission objective once liftoff occurs[8][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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