Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
61% | 39% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
61% | 39% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 61% |
| Novak Djokovic | 12% |
| Alexander Zverev | 9% |
| Taylor Fritz | 7% |
| Alex de Minaur | 3% |
| Grigor Dimitrov | 3% |
| Félix Auger-Aliassime | 3% |
| Flavio Cobolli | 2% |
| Alexander Bublik | 1% |
| Jiří Lehečka | 1% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 0% |
| Jack Draper | 0% |
| Ben Shelton | 0% |
| João Fonseca | 0% |
| Jakub Menšík | 0% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 0% |
| Arthur Fils | 0% |
| Tommy Paul | 0% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 0% |
| Matteo Berrettini | 0% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0% |
| Sebastian Korda | 0% |
| Gabriel Diallo | 0% |
| Andrey Rublev | 0% |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 0% |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 0% |
| Lorenzo Sonego | 0% |
| Alex Michelsen | 0% |
| Frances Tiafoe | 0% |
| Cameron Norrie | 0% |
| Alexei Popyrin | 0% |
| Tallon Griekspoor | 0% |
| Francisco Cerúndolo | 0% |
| Ugo Humbert | 0% |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0% |
| Casper Ruud | 0% |
| Karen Khachanov | 0% |
| Tomáš Macháč | 0% |
| Nicolás Jarry | 0% |
| Marin Čilić | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Player A | 0% |
| Player B | 0% |
| Player C | 0% |
| Player D | 0% |
| Player E | 0% |
| Player F | 0% |
| Player G | 0% |
| Player H | 0% |
| Player I | 0% |
| Player J | 0% |
| Player K | 0% |
| Player L | 0% |
| Player M | 0% |
| Player N | 0% |
| Player O | 0% |
| Player P | 0% |
| Player Q | 0% |
| Player R | 0% |
| Player S | 0% |
| Player T | 0% |
| Player U | 0% |
| Player V | 0% |
| Player W | 0% |
| Player X | 0% |
| Player Y | 0% |
| Player Z | 0% |
Market context
توقع: 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner — current market-implied probability: 61%. Wimbledon 2026 is scheduled for June 29 - July 12, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a lis…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: 2026 Men’s Wimbledon Winner on توقعات المونديال
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →