Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
25% | 75% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
25% | 75% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka | 25% |
| Iga Swiatek | 10% |
| Elena Rybakina | 9% |
| Coco Gauff | 8% |
| Mirra Andreeva | 6% |
| Naomi Osaka | 6% |
| Amanda Anisimova | 4% |
| Jessica Pegula | 4% |
| Linda Noskova | 4% |
| Karolina Muchova | 3% |
| Madison Keys | 2% |
| Elina Svitolina | 2% |
| Alexandra Eala | 2% |
| Qinwen Zheng | 1% |
| Barbora Krejcikova | 1% |
| Victoria Mboko | 1% |
| Emma Navarro | 1% |
| Belinda Bencic | 1% |
| Jasmine Paolini | 1% |
| Paula Badosa | 1% |
| Diana Shnaider | 1% |
| Marie Bouzkova | 1% |
| Elise Mertens | 1% |
| Marketa Vondrousova | 0% |
| Clara Tauson | 0% |
| Emma Raducanu | 0% |
| Maya Joint | 0% |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | 0% |
| Jelena Ostapenko | 0% |
| Daria Kasatkina | 0% |
| Tereza Valentova | 0% |
| Anastasia Potapova | 0% |
| Donna Vekic | 0% |
| Dayana Yastremska | 0% |
| Liudmila Samsonova | 0% |
| Xiyu Wang | 0% |
| Ashlyn Krueger | 0% |
| Beatriz Haddad Maia | 0% |
| Sofia Kenin | 0% |
| Katie Boulter | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Player A | 0% |
| Player B | 0% |
| Player C | 0% |
| Player D | 0% |
| Player E | 0% |
| Player F | 0% |
| Player G | 0% |
| Player H | 0% |
| Player I | 0% |
| Player J | 0% |
| Player K | 0% |
| Player L | 0% |
| Player M | 0% |
| Player N | 0% |
| Player O | 0% |
| Player P | 0% |
| Player Q | 0% |
| Player R | 0% |
| Player S | 0% |
| Player T | 0% |
| Player U | 0% |
| Player V | 0% |
| Player W | 0% |
| Player X | 0% |
| Player Y | 0% |
| Player Z | 0% |
Market context
The توقع: 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis) prediction market currently prices this outcome at 25% YES. The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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