Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via توقعات المونديال) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Match O/U 21.5 | 99% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Match O/U 22.5 | 75% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 66% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 31% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 24% |
| Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Set 2 Winner | 4% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for توقع: Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli. This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Topo and Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Croatia Open, originally scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Topo' i…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Croatia Open: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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